diff --git a/admin/settings/analytics.php b/admin/settings/analytics.php
index a7222444e5bde3c3111a52abea4ee82f039f39b9..30b6a2260c479885be3cd5bb20fec6cbd1f01be5 100644
--- a/admin/settings/analytics.php
+++ b/admin/settings/analytics.php
@@ -131,15 +131,10 @@ if ($hassiteconfig && \core_analytics\manager::is_analytics_enabled()) {
             $timesplittingdefaults, $timesplittingoptions)
         );
 
-        // Predictions processor output dir.
-        $defaultmodeloutputdir = rtrim($CFG->dataroot, '/') . DIRECTORY_SEPARATOR . 'models';
-        if (empty(get_config('analytics', 'modeloutputdir')) && !file_exists($defaultmodeloutputdir) &&
-                is_writable($defaultmodeloutputdir)) {
-            // Automatically create the dir for them so users don't see the invalid value red cross.
-            mkdir($defaultmodeloutputdir, $CFG->directorypermissions, true);
-        }
+        // Predictions processor output dir - specify default in setting description (used if left blank).
+        $defaultmodeloutputdir = \core_analytics\model::default_output_dir();
         $settings->add(new admin_setting_configdirectory('analytics/modeloutputdir', new lang_string('modeloutputdir', 'analytics'),
-            new lang_string('modeloutputdirinfo', 'analytics'), $defaultmodeloutputdir));
+            new lang_string('modeloutputdirwithdefaultinfo', 'analytics', $defaultmodeloutputdir), ''));
 
         // Disable web interface evaluation and get predictions.
         $settings->add(new admin_setting_configcheckbox('analytics/onlycli', new lang_string('onlycli', 'analytics'),
diff --git a/analytics/classes/model.php b/analytics/classes/model.php
index 5385c29fc3b643ad288a0edf7c2962aff32c5662..5fc63d4b1667c79b04e69a8e45e6953148eeab11 100644
--- a/analytics/classes/model.php
+++ b/analytics/classes/model.php
@@ -1492,6 +1492,17 @@ class model {
             $prediction->get_prediction_data()->contextid, $prediction->get_sample_data());
     }
 
+    /**
+     * Returns the default output directory for prediction processors
+     *
+     * @return string
+     */
+    public static function default_output_dir(): string {
+        global $CFG;
+
+        return $CFG->dataroot . DIRECTORY_SEPARATOR . 'models';
+    }
+
     /**
      * Returns the output directory for prediction processors.
      *
@@ -1506,8 +1517,6 @@ class model {
      * @return string
      */
     public function get_output_dir($subdirs = array(), $onlymodelid = false) {
-        global $CFG;
-
         $subdirstr = '';
         foreach ($subdirs as $subdir) {
             $subdirstr .= DIRECTORY_SEPARATOR . $subdir;
@@ -1516,7 +1525,7 @@ class model {
         $outputdir = get_config('analytics', 'modeloutputdir');
         if (empty($outputdir)) {
             // Apply default value.
-            $outputdir = rtrim($CFG->dataroot, '/') . DIRECTORY_SEPARATOR . 'models';
+            $outputdir = self::default_output_dir();
         }
 
         // Append model id.
diff --git a/lang/en/analytics.php b/lang/en/analytics.php
index 17f165464df76491ba875432bed0b0de7bed7dc7..0fc4a3cc6538e97e4b320aabc4c527f8e7da2b90 100644
--- a/lang/en/analytics.php
+++ b/lang/en/analytics.php
@@ -94,6 +94,7 @@ $string['modeinstructionblendedhybrid'] = 'Blended or hybrid';
 $string['modeinstructionfullyonline'] = 'Fully online';
 $string['modeloutputdir'] = 'Models output directory';
 $string['modeloutputdirinfo'] = 'Directory where prediction processors store all evaluation info. Useful for debugging and research.';
+$string['modeloutputdirwithdefaultinfo'] = 'Directory where prediction processors store all evaluation info. Useful for debugging and research. If empty, then \'<strong>{$a}</strong>\' will be used as default.';
 $string['modeltimelimit'] = 'Analysis time limit per model';
 $string['modeltimelimitinfo'] = 'This setting limits the time each model spends analysing the site contents.';
 $string['neutral'] = 'Neutral';
diff --git a/lib/db/upgrade.php b/lib/db/upgrade.php
index 5efbefe35d59e9bfdc438acfafe564abb5c38667..5bce1188381a811086610858a3c2877b3baa03db 100644
--- a/lib/db/upgrade.php
+++ b/lib/db/upgrade.php
@@ -2622,5 +2622,16 @@ function xmldb_main_upgrade($oldversion) {
         upgrade_main_savepoint(true, 2020061502.10);
     }
 
+    if ($oldversion < 2020061502.12) {
+        // Reset analytics model output dir if it's the default value.
+        $modeloutputdir = get_config('analytics', 'modeloutputdir');
+        if (strcasecmp($modeloutputdir, $CFG->dataroot . DIRECTORY_SEPARATOR . 'models') == 0) {
+            set_config('modeloutputdir', '', 'analytics');
+        }
+
+        // Main savepoint reached.
+        upgrade_main_savepoint(true, 2020061502.12);
+    }
+
     return true;
 }
diff --git a/version.php b/version.php
index 185a5bf8fe5892d08ec1f71e894560fe0e4352e4..2d33a63131e9f02cf97af36ee26abd5c71bafa86 100644
--- a/version.php
+++ b/version.php
@@ -29,7 +29,7 @@
 
 defined('MOODLE_INTERNAL') || die();
 
-$version  = 2020061502.11;              // 20200615      = branching date YYYYMMDD - do not modify!
+$version  = 2020061502.12;              // 20200615      = branching date YYYYMMDD - do not modify!
                                         //         RR    = release increments - 00 in DEV branches.
                                         //           .XX = incremental changes.
 $release  = '3.9.2+ (Build: 20201021)'; // Human-friendly version name